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Who will win the Euros? Is it England or France?

Opta's pre-tournament projections for Euro 2024 suggest that Gareth Southgate's team still has a chance to win this summer.

A penalty knockout was the sole thing that stood between England and a European Championship title in 2021. After suffering a crushing defeat to Italy in the final at Wembley Stadium, it was difficult not to wonder if the Three Lions had just squandered their best chance of major tournament success.

Opta’s pre-tournament projections for Euro 2024 suggest that Gareth Southgate’s team still has a chance to win this summer. It is unusual for England to enter a major international tournament as clear favourites. But that is exactly the case this time, according to Opta’s prediction model. Southgate’s side leads the pack of projected winners, with a 19.9% chance of lifting the trophy in Germany.

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Craze for Euro Championship has started already

Although the news is likely to be well-received, many may be curious about how it came to be. and it’s a valid question. To get a more complete picture of who will win the tournament, Opta’s prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome – win, draw, or loss – using betting market odds and our own team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performance. And the equation then considers rival strength and the difficulty of their path to the final using match outcome probabilities. Taking into account group composition and knockout stage seedings.

UEFA European Championship 2024
Opta Supercomputer Predictions

Steve Clarke’s men will have their work cut out for them to qualify in Group A. Which appears to be one of the most evenly matched groups in the tournament overall. According to the predictor, Scotland has a 58.9% chance of making the last 16. Whether by finishing in the top two or as one of the best third-placed teams. The big problem for them is that, along with Group A favourites Germany, Switzerland (61%) and Hungary (59.3%) are also very similarly placed to make the knockout stages.


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